养殖股盘中上行，养殖ETF（159865）涨近1%，能繁产能低位或支撑猪价弱周期波动

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that since February 2025, the national pig selling price has fallen to the range of 14 yuan/kg and continues to fluctuate, primarily influenced by changes in breeding sow capacity from 10 months ago [1] - Despite entering a production increase phase in May 2024, the absolute capacity remains low due to cautious expansion by large-scale farms facing financial constraints, while smallholders are either exiting or shifting to fattening [1] - It is expected that pig prices in 2025 will exhibit a weak cyclical trend characterized by "not weak in the off-season, not strong in the peak season," leading to increased industry differentiation, with cost-leading enterprises maintaining profitability [1] Group 2 - The Livestock ETF (159865) tracks the China Securities Livestock Index (code: 930707), selecting listed companies in the livestock feed, breeding, vaccine, and meat processing sectors to reflect the overall performance of the livestock industry [1] - The China Securities Livestock Index covers the entire industry chain of livestock, including leading enterprises in feed and processing, demonstrating significant industry representation and completeness of the supply chain [1] - For investors without stock accounts, attention can be directed to the Guotai China Securities Livestock Breeding ETF Connect A (012724) and Guotai China Securities Livestock Breeding ETF Connect C (012725) [1]