智通财经网·2025-04-22 05:52Core Viewpoint - The power sector is experiencing a fundamental improvement, with a recovery in electricity consumption growth and a narrowing decline in thermal power generation, alongside an increase in the contribution of clean energy [1][3]. Group 1: Electricity Consumption and Generation - In March, the national electricity consumption growth rate rebounded to 4.8%, with the secondary industry growth rate lower than the industrial added value growth rate, possibly due to a decline in electricity demand from high-energy-consuming industries [1]. - The total power generation in March increased by 1.8% year-on-year, with thermal power generation declining by 2.3% year-on-year but improving by 3.5 percentage points month-on-month [1]. - New installed capacity in January-February reached 55 GW, with wind and solar power contributing 9.3 GW and 39.5 GW respectively [1]. Group 2: Pricing and Market Dynamics - Capacity prices have slightly increased, with a year-on-year rise of 23.3%, 11.9%, and 6.1% in various provinces, offsetting the decline in electricity prices [2]. - The price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal has decreased to 663 RMB per ton, down 163 RMB year-on-year, while domestic LNG prices have dropped by approximately 20% since the beginning of the year [2]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The power sector is expected to transition from a weak dividend to a strong dividend, with a notable recovery in earnings per share (EPS) expectations [3]. - The sector is characterized by its defensive attributes, with stable demand and a high degree of market management, as evidenced by over 20 companies announcing increased dividend payouts for 2024 [3]. - Three investment portfolios are recommended: (1) Defensive water and regional energy assets; (2) Elastic thermal power stocks; (3) Policy-driven green energy investments [4].