Workflow
智飞生物遭遇营收、利润、现金流“三杀”
Xin Lang Zheng Quan·2025-04-22 08:15

Core Viewpoint - The company, Zhifei Biological, reported a shocking financial performance for 2024, with a significant decline in revenue and profit, indicating deep-rooted development crises in the vaccine industry [1][3]. Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2024 was 26.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 50.74% [1]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.018 billion yuan, down 74.99% [1]. - Operating cash flow turned negative for the first time, reaching -4.414 billion yuan, with a debt-to-asset ratio climbing to 62.3%, the highest in five years [1]. Business Segment Analysis - The core agency business experienced a catastrophic decline, with the issuance of Merck's HPV vaccine plummeting: the four-valent vaccine's issuance was only 466,000 doses, a drop of 95.5%, while the nine-valent vaccine saw a 14.8% decrease to 31.14 million doses [1]. - Revenue from agency business fell from 69.5 billion yuan in 2023 to 23.9 billion yuan in 2024 [1]. - Self-developed products showed a 14.98% increase in revenue to 1.182 billion yuan, but only accounted for 4.53% of total revenue [2]. Industry Challenges - The industry is facing cyclical adjustments and demand exhaustion, with a 37% decline in the total issuance of second-class vaccines in 2024, and a 42% reduction in the HPV vaccine market [3]. - The company's heavy reliance on Merck's products poses risks, especially with the partnership agreement expiring in 2026, leaving renewal terms uncertain [3]. - Research and development spending was only 1.23 billion yuan, representing 4.7% of revenue, significantly lower than the 15%-20% standard of international vaccine giants [3]. Strategic Shifts - The company is shifting its strategic focus towards independent innovation, including entering the GLP-1 market through a stake in Chen'an Biological [4]. - There is a need to re-evaluate channel value and restructure the ecosystem, transforming the existing distribution network into an open vaccine service platform [4]. - The male health market presents strategic opportunities, with the potential for the HPV vaccine market exceeding 20 billion yuan in China [5]. Future Outlook - The company is at a crossroads, transitioning from a "distributor" to an "innovator," facing short-term pain but with long-term potential in the vaccine industry [5]. - Key factors for recovery include the speed of R&D pipeline advancement, the depth of strategic partnerships, and signs of cash flow improvement [6].