智通财经网·2025-04-22 08:35Core Viewpoint - Novo Nordisk's stock plummeted by 9.8% following Eli Lilly's announcement of its new drug Zepbound, which shows comparable efficacy in weight loss and blood sugar control to Novo Nordisk's Ozempic [1][3] Group 1: Market Impact - Eli Lilly's breakthrough research is reshaping the GLP-1 drug market, leading to a 20% reduction in Novo Nordisk's 2030 sales forecast by analysts [3] - Novo Nordisk's market capitalization has decreased by one-third since the beginning of the year due to increased competition [1][3] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Novo Nordisk is responding by seeking FDA approval for a high-dose oral weight loss drug containing semaglutide, the active ingredient in Ozempic and Wegovy [3] - The weight loss market is highly competitive, with Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly generating billions in sales from their injectable products, crucial to the projected $130 billion weight loss drug market by the end of 2020 [3] Group 3: Drug Efficacy - Eli Lilly's oral weight loss drug Orforglipron shows an average weight loss of 7.9%, outperforming Ozempic's maximum weight loss of approximately 6% [4] - Orforglipron offers advantages such as no dietary restrictions and flexible dosing, enhancing its market potential despite being slightly less effective in blood sugar reduction compared to Ozempic [4] Group 4: Long-term Efficacy - Long-term studies indicate that patients using Eli Lilly's Zepbound experience minimal weight regain, with most regaining less than 5% of their weight over three years [4] - Novo Nordisk's Wegovy also shows stable weight maintenance over three years in a study involving 17,000 participants [4]