IMF：全面调降全球经济增速预期，国内失衡导致全球失衡

Global Economic Outlook - The IMF emphasizes that global economic growth is cooling, with domestic imbalances and policy differences among countries leading to global imbalances and potential vulnerabilities in the economic outlook [1][4][10] - The IMF's reference forecast predicts global economic growth to decline from 3.3% in 2024 to 2.8% in 2025, before recovering to 3% in 2026, which is lower than previous forecasts [1][2][3] Economic Growth Projections - Advanced economies are expected to see a decrease in growth from 1.8% in 2024 to 1.4% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026, with significant downgrades for the US, Canada, the UK, and Japan [5][6] - The US economic growth forecast for 2025 is lowered to 1.8%, down 1 percentage point from 2024 and 0.9 percentage points from the January WEO [5] - Emerging market and developing economies are projected to grow at 3.7% in 2025 and 3.9% in 2026, down from 4.3% in 2024 [6] Inflation Outlook - The IMF forecasts global inflation to decrease to 4.3% in 2025 and further to 3.6% in 2026, with developed economies expected to return to target levels sooner than emerging markets [8][9] - The inflation forecast for the US and the UK has been notably increased, reflecting persistent price dynamics in the service sector and recent tariff measures [8][9] Trade and Policy Impacts - The IMF highlights that trade policy uncertainty is expected to persist, affecting growth projections across various scenarios [1][3] - The impact of tariffs on growth varies by country, depending on trade relationships and industry composition, with some economies like China and the Eurozone potentially mitigating negative effects through fiscal support [7][10]