美元资产遭全局抛售，境内机构对欧元股债热度升温

Group 1: Economic Trends and Market Reactions - The euro has surged nearly 10% against the dollar, surpassing the 1.15 mark on April 22, driven by Germany's fiscal expansion [1] - The simultaneous decline of U.S. stocks, bonds, and the dollar index indicates a broad willingness among investors to sell U.S. assets, reflecting a systemic rejection of U.S. economic strategies [1][3] - The U.S. stock market has experienced significant declines, with major indices dropping over 2% and the dollar index falling more than 10% from its mid-January peak [4] Group 2: Investment Shifts and Opportunities - Increased fiscal spending in Germany is expected to benefit European markets, particularly in value sectors, with European bank stocks outperforming U.S. tech giants since 2022 [2] - There is a growing interest in European bonds as U.S. Treasury bonds are being sold off, with expectations of multiple rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) [2][6] - The strong performance of European assets is attributed to Germany's historic fiscal reforms and increased defense spending, which have boosted market confidence [5][6] Group 3: Central Bank Policies and Currency Dynamics - The ECB's recent rate cut to 2.25% reflects its commitment to support economic activity in the eurozone, with a high probability of further cuts in the near future [6][7] - Despite the typical negative impact of rate cuts on the euro, the market seems to have absorbed this effect, leading to a resilient euro against the dollar [7] - The potential for a 5% CPI in the U.S. by 2025 due to increased tariffs raises concerns about consumer and business confidence, further influencing investment decisions [4][8] Group 4: Trade Negotiations and Structural Challenges - Ongoing trade negotiations and structural issues within Europe pose significant uncertainties for the market, with varying attitudes towards U.S. trade policies among different countries [8][9] - The long and complex nature of trade agreements suggests that the current period of uncertainty may not be resolved quickly, impacting market stability [9]