Arch Capital Group (ACGL) Expected to Beat Earnings Estimates: Should You Buy?

Core Viewpoint - Arch Capital Group (ACGL) is expected to report a year-over-year decline in earnings despite higher revenues for the quarter ended March 2025, with the consensus outlook being crucial for assessing the company's earnings picture [1][3]. Earnings Expectations - The consensus EPS estimate for Arch Capital is $1.37 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 44.1% [3]. - Revenues are anticipated to reach $4.55 billion, which is a 20.8% increase from the same quarter last year [3]. Estimate Revisions - Over the last 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 1.67%, indicating a reassessment by analysts [4]. - The Most Accurate Estimate for Arch Capital is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in a positive Earnings ESP of +2.28% [10][11]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model suggests that a positive Earnings ESP reading is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, especially when combined with a Zacks Rank of 1, 2, or 3 [8]. - Arch Capital currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3, indicating a likelihood of beating the consensus EPS estimate [11]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Arch Capital exceeded the expected earnings of $1.85 per share by delivering $2.26, resulting in a surprise of +22.16% [12]. - The company has beaten consensus EPS estimates in each of the last four quarters [13]. Industry Comparison - Kinsale Capital Group, another player in the property and casualty insurance industry, is expected to report earnings of $3.15 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 10% [17]. - Kinsale's revenues are projected to be $424.32 million, up 13.8% from the previous year [17]. - The consensus EPS estimate for Kinsale has been revised down by 0.2% over the last 30 days, and it currently has a negative Earnings ESP of -11.18% along with a Zacks Rank of 4, indicating challenges in predicting an earnings beat [18].