贸易紧张局势迅速升级，政策不确定性加剧波动，美滥施关税拉低全球增长预期

Group 1: Global Economic Outlook - The IMF has lowered the global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 2.8%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the January prediction [1][3] - The report attributes the downward revision to increased policy uncertainty, trade tensions, and weakening demand [3][4] - The growth rate for the Eurozone is expected to decline by 0.2 percentage points to 0.8% in 2025, while emerging markets and developing economies are projected to grow at 3.7%, down 0.5 percentage points from earlier estimates [3] Group 2: Impact of U.S. Tariff Policies - The U.S. has implemented new tariffs affecting nearly all trade partners, resulting in the highest actual tariff levels in a century [4] - The tariffs have led to significant declines in exports from countries like South Korea, with a reported 5.2% drop in exports in April, including a 14.3% decrease in exports to the U.S. [1][7] - The tariffs are expected to increase costs for U.S. consumers and businesses, with estimates suggesting that aluminum tariffs alone could raise the cost of a Ford F-150 by approximately $3,000 [8] Group 3: Business Sentiment and Market Reactions - U.S. stock markets have reacted negatively to the tariff policies, with major indices experiencing declines of over 2% [5] - Retailers and other industries reliant on imports are expressing concerns about the impact of tariffs on their business models, with calls for the government to ease tariff requirements [6] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policies is causing anxiety among American families and small businesses, as rising prices are expected to affect everyday expenses [6][8]