Spot Market - Mainstream iron ore powder spot prices: Rizhao Port PB powder-3 at 767 yuan/ton, Brazilian mixed powder-3 at 785 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - As of yesterday's close, the main iron ore futures contract increased by 0.21% (+1.5), closing at 711 yuan/ton [2] Basis - The optimal delivery product is BRBF. The warehouse costs for PB powder and Brazilian mixed powder are 813 yuan and 800 yuan, respectively. The basis for the May contract PB powder is around 47 yuan/ton [3] Demand - Daily average pig iron production is 2.4012 million tons, down by 0.1 million tons; blast furnace operating rate is 83.56%, up by 0.28%; blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate is 90.15%, down by 0.04 percentage points; steel mill profit rate is 54.98%, up by 1.3 percentage points [4] Supply - This week, global shipments increased slightly. Global shipments rose by 178,000 tons to 29.255 million tons. Total shipments from Australia and Brazil reached 24.377 million tons, an increase of 29,000 tons. Australian shipments were 17.992 million tons, up by 929,000 tons, with shipments to China at 15.743 million tons, up by 980,000 tons. Brazilian shipments were 6.386 million tons, down by 899,000 tons. Port arrivals totaled 23.253 million tons, down by 2.002 million tons [5] Inventory - As of April 17, the inventory at 45 ports is 140.56 million tons, down by 2.8502 million tons; iron ore arrivals at ports increased week-on-week, while pig iron production maintained high levels, leading to a reduction in port inventory. Steel mills' imported ore inventory decreased by 945,900 tons to 90.5292 million tons, with daily consumption of imported ore slightly increasing, as steel mills maintain a low inventory strategy [6] Market Outlook - The iron ore September contract fluctuated yesterday, with the May-September spread remaining high. Port spot transactions slightly declined, while long-term spot prices significantly fell. On the macro level, the U.S. stance has softened, with Trump indicating that final tariffs will be significantly lower than current levels. The macro environment may continue to fluctuate. In terms of fundamentals, daily pig iron production remains around 2.4 million tons, with SMM predicting a continued decline in production due to furnace maintenance, coupled with acceptable steel mill profits, suggesting a slight growth potential for pig iron, although overall space is limited. The supply-demand data for finished steel indicates resilient demand, with significant rebounds in rebar and wire rod demand, while cold-rolled demand continues to decline. Future attention should be on export and terminal demand marginal changes. On the supply side, global iron ore shipments increased slightly this week, while port arrivals saw a significant decline. The recovery of port unloading efficiency has reduced the number of ships at port, converting to inventory, leading to a slight increase in port inventory. Looking ahead to Q2, the marginal impact on terminal demand will depend on exports and infrastructure; if exports decline more than expected, expectations for inventory accumulation will increase. However, if resilience is maintained, iron ore may trend towards supply-demand balance, with a higher probability of slight inventory reduction or stabilization. In reality, high pig iron production maintains a destocking pattern for iron ore, with a favorable supply-demand situation, pending verification of terminal demand and pig iron levels, maintaining a near strong and far weak pattern. Short-term long-dated contracts lack a basis for significant rebounds, and caution is advised regarding policy disruptions such as crude steel production cuts. Iron ore is expected to fluctuate [7]
铁矿石：铁水维持高位 钢厂检修量继续下滑
Jin Tou Wang·2025-04-23 02:05