Zhong Guo Neng Yuan Wang·2025-04-23 06:39Core Viewpoint - The aviation industry is expected to see improvements in supply and demand during the peak season, with potential recovery in ticket prices as demand continues to grow during holidays like Spring Festival and Qingming [1][3]. Supply Side Analysis - Supply chain issues and the impact of the US "reciprocal tariffs" may further slow down aircraft introductions [3][4]. - Short-term increases in utilization rates are limited due to engine maintenance [3][4]. - Domestic flight load factors remain high, indicating limited capacity for overall peak season growth [3][4]. Demand Side Analysis - Demand is expected to continue growing, particularly during the Spring Festival and Qingming holidays, which may lead to improved supply-demand dynamics and a potential recovery in low ticket prices [3][4]. Industry Performance Data - In March 2025, the industry saw a year-on-year increase in ASK and RPK of 4.5% and 6.7%, respectively, with a load factor of 83.3%, up 1.7 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The average domestic economy class ticket price was 722 yuan, down 11.2% year-on-year, with Q1 ticket prices showing a decline of 12% [4][5]. Fuel Price Trends - The average price of aviation kerosene in Q1 2025 was 5,952 yuan per ton, down 10% year-on-year, while the price in April dropped to 5,602 yuan per ton, a decrease of 15.4% [5][6]. - Brent crude oil prices averaged $74.98 per barrel in Q1 2025, down 8.3% year-on-year, with April's average at $66.81 per barrel, down 24.9% [6]. Capacity and Fleet Management - Airlines are reallocating capacity to international routes, with domestic ASK decreasing but load factors improving [7]. - In March, China Southern Airlines had the highest net increase in aircraft, adding 13 planes, while other airlines also saw varying increases [7].