DOW Warms Up to Q1 Earnings: What's in the Cards for the Stock?

Core Viewpoint - Dow Inc. is expected to report a decline in first-quarter 2025 results due to soft demand and pricing pressures, despite some benefits from productivity initiatives [1][2]. Revenue Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Dow's revenues in the upcoming quarter is $10,271.4 million, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 4.6% [6]. - Revenue estimates for the Packaging & Specialty Plastics segment are projected at $5,172.1 million, indicating a 4.8% decline year over year [6]. - The Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure segment is expected to generate $2,872.6 million, showing a 4.5% year-over-year decline [6]. - The Performance Materials & Coatings segment is estimated to bring in $2,098.2 million, suggesting a 2.5% decline year over year [7]. Factors Affecting Q1 Results - Dow is facing demand softness in Europe and China, with lower consumer spending due to inflation impacting demand in Europe [8]. - Construction and manufacturing activities in Europe remain weak, while the property sector in China is sluggish with declining new home prices [8]. - Inflationary pressures are affecting demand for consumer durables and construction, with automotive demand in Europe also softening [9]. - The Performance Materials & Coatings unit is challenged by weak siloxane prices due to competitive pricing pressures from increased supply in Asia [10]. - Higher feedstock and energy costs are expected to impact earnings, with a projected $100 million headwind in the Packaging & Specialty Plastics segment [12]. Cost-Saving Initiatives - Dow is implementing targeted actions to reduce direct and labor costs, aiming to cut costs by $1 billion to improve margins [13]. - The benefits of these cost-saving actions are anticipated to be reflected in the company's bottom line for the upcoming quarter [13]. Earnings Prediction - The Earnings ESP for Dow is currently at 0.00%, with a consensus estimate indicating a loss of 2 cents for the first quarter [15]. - Dow carries a Zacks Rank of 5 (Strong Sell), indicating a low likelihood of an earnings beat this season [16].