Will These 4 Energy Stocks Surpass Q1 Earnings Estimates?

Core Insights - The oil/energy sector is experiencing significant challenges in Q1 2025 due to fluctuating commodity prices and market uncertainties, with oil prices declining and natural gas prices increasing, creating a mixed environment for companies in this sector [1] Oil Price Performance - In Q1 2025, the average price of West Texas Intermediate crude fell to $71.84 per barrel, down from $77.56 in the previous year, driven by concerns over weaker global economic growth, increased supply from non-OPEC+ nations, and lower-than-expected demand [2] - Escalating trade tensions and rising oil inventories further pressured oil prices [2] Natural Gas Price Trends - Natural gas prices increased significantly, with the Henry Hub spot price averaging $4.15 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), up from $2.13 per MMBtu in the prior-year quarter, primarily due to colder weather boosting heating demand and rising LNG exports [3] Earnings Outlook for Oil/Energy Sector - Oil/energy companies in the S&P 500 are projected to report an 11.1% year-over-year earnings decline for Q1 2025, continuing a downward trend from the previous quarter [4] - In contrast, the broader S&P 500 is expected to see a 6.8% earnings increase, highlighting the underperformance of the oil/energy sector [5] Revenue Trends - Revenue for oil/energy companies is projected to decline by 0.4% year-over-year, while S&P 500 revenues are on track to grow by 3.9%, indicating struggles in maintaining top-line growth in a changing commodity environment [6] Margin Compression - The earnings drag from lower oil prices continues to dominate despite higher natural gas prices, compressing margins and making it difficult for companies to deliver consistent results [7][9] Sector Performance Comparison - Other sectors, such as Technology (+12.5%), Medical (+34.7%), and Utilities (+14.1%), are experiencing strong earnings growth, while the oil/energy sector remains the worst performer alongside other weak sectors like autos and basic materials [8] Company-Specific Earnings Insights - TechnipFMC plc (FTI) has an Earnings ESP of -0.92% and a Zacks Rank 3, indicating low chances of an earnings beat, with a consensus estimate of 36 cents per share, suggesting a 63.64% increase from the prior year [11][13] - Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) has an Earnings ESP of -14.71% and a Zacks Rank 3, with a consensus estimate of 43 cents per share, indicating an 88.74% decrease from the prior year [13] - RPC, Inc. (RES) has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank 3, with a consensus estimate of 7 cents per share, suggesting a 46.15% decrease from the prior year [14][15] - CNX Resources Corporation (CNX) has an Earnings ESP of -2.96% and a Zacks Rank 3, with a consensus estimate of 65 cents per share, indicating a 44.44% increase from the prior year [16][17]