Carter's Q1 Earnings on Deck: Will Adverse Trends Hurt Performance?

Core Viewpoint - Carter's, Inc. is expected to report a decline in both revenue and earnings for the first quarter of 2025, influenced by challenging macroeconomic conditions and reduced consumer demand [1][3][4]. Revenue and Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter revenues is $621.3 million, reflecting a 6.1$615 million and $625 million, down from$661 million in the previous year [7]. - Adjusted earnings are expected to be between 45 and 55 cents per share, a decline from $1.04 reported in the prior-year quarter [7]. - The company anticipates adjusted operating income of$30 million to $35 million, down from$55 million in the year-ago quarter, with an expected adjusted operating income of $31.4 million, representing a 43% year-over-year decrease [7]. Sales Projections - Total sales in the U.S. Retail business are expected to decline in the mid-single-digit to high-single-digit range [8]. - U.S. Wholesale sales are anticipated to decrease by high-single digits year-over-year, while international sales are expected to dip in the mid-single digits [8]. - Comparable sales in the U.S. Retail business are projected to be down mid- to high-single digits, with a model predicting a 6% decline in U.S. Retail and a 6.9% decline in U.S. Wholesale [8]. Cost and Margin Pressures - The company has been experiencing higher selling, general and administrative expenses (SG&A) as a percentage of sales, due to fixed cost deleverage from lower sales and increased distribution and transportation costs [5]. - The higher SG&A expense rate is expected to strain operating margins and reduce profitability [5]. Strategic Initiatives - Carter's is focusing on strategic initiatives to improve long-term performance, including enhancing merchandise assortments and refining inventory management [9]. - The company is implementing measures such as improved pricing and optimized inventory management, along with strengthening its e-commerce capabilities [9]. Valuation Perspective - From a valuation standpoint, Carter's is trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 9.89X, which is below its five-year high of 21.14X and the industry average of 21.58X, presenting an attractive opportunity for investors [12]. - CRI's shares have lost 30.5% in the past three months, compared to a 24.5% decline in the industry [13].