民生证券：给予厦门象屿买入评级

Core Viewpoint - Xiamen Xiangyu (600057) reported a year-on-year increase of 34.7% in net profit attributable to shareholders for Q4 2024, reflecting a recovery despite overall performance being pressured by weak demand and falling prices in the bulk commodity market [2][4]. Financial Performance - For the full year 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 366.67 billion yuan, a decrease of 20.1% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 2.3% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was 1.42 billion yuan, down 9.9% year-on-year; however, excluding credit impairment losses, the net profit grew by over 7% year-on-year [2]. - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 68.97 billion yuan, a decline of 23.7% year-on-year and 26.8% quarter-on-quarter, with a gross margin of 3.6% [2]. Business Structure - The bulk commodity trading segment generated revenue of 345.3 billion yuan in 2024, down 21.4% year-on-year, primarily due to weak demand and price declines; the operating volume remained stable at 224 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.3% [3]. - The logistics segment saw revenue growth of 33.0% year-on-year, reaching 9.42 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 8.9% [3]. - The manufacturing segment achieved revenue of 11.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, with shipbuilding revenue rising by 24.8% to 5.9 billion yuan [3]. Shareholder Returns and Incentives - The company increased its dividend payout ratio from 43.31% at the end of 2023 to 49.46% in 2024, with a total proposed dividend of 0.25 yuan per share, amounting to 702 million yuan [4]. - A stock incentive plan was announced, proposing to grant 173 million restricted shares at a price of 2.96 yuan per share, representing 6.16% of the total share capital [4]. - A share repurchase plan was also announced, aiming to buy back 100 to 150 million shares at a maximum price of 8.85 yuan per share, with an expected total repurchase amount of 885 million to 1.328 billion yuan [4]. Investment Outlook - The company is positioned as a leading player in the bulk supply chain, with a solid foundation and expected high dividend ratios and yields; projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 1.746 billion, 1.969 billion, and 2.211 billion yuan respectively [5].