为何美国无法通过所谓“对等关税”解决“双赤字”难题？

Core Viewpoint - The long-term U.S. tariff policy cannot fundamentally resolve the "twin deficits" issue, which includes both trade and fiscal deficits [1][22]. Trade Deficit - The U.S. trade deficit reached a historical high of $1.3 trillion in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 10.89%, and is projected to be $1.29 trillion in 2024, up 12.57% [3]. - The trade deficit with China remains significant, with a surplus of $319 billion in 2024, only a decrease of $76.7 billion from 2017 [2]. - The U.S. has maintained a trade deficit exceeding $1.1 trillion since 2021, with a deficit of $289.1 billion in the first two months of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 58.3% [3]. Fiscal Deficit - The federal budget deficit is projected to reach $1.781 trillion in 2025, accounting for 23.9% of the total budget and 5.9% of GDP, indicating a worsening trend compared to 2019 [5][7]. - Interest payments on national debt are expected to rise from $363 billion in 2019 to $965 billion in 2025, driven by a historic federal debt exceeding $36 trillion and rising interest rates [6][7]. Tariff Policy and Revenue - The U.S. government anticipates an average annual tariff revenue of $290 billion over the next decade, which is only 15.6% of the projected $1.859 trillion fiscal deficit in 2024 [2][21]. - The proposed tariffs, including a 145% tariff on China, are expected to generate $9.8 trillion in revenue from $27.7 trillion in imports over ten years, but the actual revenue may decline due to increased prices leading to reduced demand [20][21]. Structural Issues - The U.S. trade deficit is primarily a result of structural economic imbalances and the global reserve currency status of the dollar, which encourages high consumption and low savings [16][17]. - The U.S. has a high consumption rate of 67.9% of GDP, significantly above other developed countries, which contributes to the persistent trade deficit [14][16]. Impact on Competitiveness - Tariff barriers may increase global supply chain costs, potentially weakening the competitiveness of U.S. companies [22]. - The monopolistic position of U.S. tech companies allows them to generate substantial profits overseas, which may be threatened by retaliatory tariffs from other countries [11][12]. Conclusion - The "reciprocal tariffs" policy may yield short-term negotiation benefits and localized adjustments to the trade deficit, but it lacks the structural reforms necessary to address income inequality, savings rates, and fiscal sustainability [22].