水泥行业一季度利润预计同比扭亏 二季度国内市场需求有望继续回升

Core Viewpoint - The cement industry in China has made progress in reducing competition and stabilizing the market due to policy guidance and self-discipline among companies, leading to a significant recovery in prices and a reduction in the decline of demand [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Performance - In Q1 2025, the cement industry's profit is expected to reach between 1.5 billion to 2 billion yuan, marking a turnaround from losses year-on-year [1]. - National cement production in Q1 2025 was 331 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4%, which is a significant improvement compared to earlier months [1]. - The average transaction price of cement in Q1 2025 was 397 yuan per ton, an increase of 34 yuan or 9.3% year-on-year [2]. Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The decline in cement demand has slowed, with a year-on-year drop in production and sales within 2%, which is better than the previous year [2]. - The implementation of staggered production plans has increased by 5% to 10% in most regions, helping to stabilize the market and avoid vicious competition [2][4]. - The inventory level of cement is at a reasonable range, with a capacity ratio of 58%, down 7 percentage points from the previous year [2]. Group 3: Regional Insights - The Northeast region has the highest cement prices at 486 yuan per ton, a year-on-year increase of 33% [3]. - In Q1 2025, only six provinces saw cement prices below the previous year's levels, while 25 provinces experienced price increases, with 14 provinces showing increases over 10% [4]. - The performance in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has shown slight improvement in price execution, but future trends require close monitoring [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The second quarter is expected to see continued support for cement demand due to policies aimed at stabilizing growth, including accelerated issuance of special bonds and adjustments in capital ratios for infrastructure projects [4]. - Despite the price increases observed at the end of Q1, significant further increases in Q2 may be limited, with expectations of stable fluctuations [5]. - The industry anticipates rapid growth in profitability in the first half of the year, driven by declining costs and rising prices [6].