智通财经网·2025-04-24 11:01Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in the U.S. stock market is primarily driven by President Trump's inconsistent stance on tariffs, leaving many investors uncertain [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - The S&P 500 index must break the 5500 level to recover half of the 19% decline since February's historical high [1] - The index has rebounded to 5376 points after nearly falling into a bear market below 5000 points, with a need for just over a 2% increase to surpass 5500 [2] - A breakthrough at 5500 could shift trading strategies from "selling on highs" to "buying on lows" [2] Group 2: Resistance and Support Levels - The likelihood of breaking resistance increases with the number of tests; a successful breach could lead to a rebound towards 5800 to 6000 points [4] - For traders assessing potential downside, 4800 points is a critical observation level, which is over 3.5% lower than the April low [5] - There is speculation that the market could test lower levels, potentially reaching 4500 points, with some analysts suggesting a deeper test down to 4300 points [5] Group 3: Market Breadth Indicators - The percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200-day moving average has improved to 31%, up from less than 20% in early April, indicating a more sustainable trend [6] - Market participants are looking for this percentage to approach 50% to confirm bullish sentiment [7] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropped below 30 in early April, indicating overselling, but has not yet reached overbought levels during the subsequent rebound [7]