Can Biogen Keep the Beat Streak Alive This Earnings Season?

Core Viewpoint - Biogen is expected to report first-quarter 2025 results on May 1, with sales and earnings estimates at $2.24 billion and $3.34 per share, respectively. The company faces challenges from declining sales of multiple sclerosis (MS) drugs, which may be offset by revenues from new drugs [1][2][5]. Sales Performance of MS Drugs - Sales of Biogen's MS drugs, including Tecfidera and Tysabri, are anticipated to decline due to increased competition and the introduction of generic versions in various markets [2][5]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Tecfidera sales is $199.0 million, while the internal estimate is $185.7 million. For Tysabri, the estimates are $363.0 million and $348.6 million, respectively [3][4]. - Vumerity's sales rose in the fourth quarter due to higher demand, with estimates for the first quarter at $141.0 million (Zacks) and $139.8 million (internal) [4]. Impact of Biosimilars and Generics - The decline in MS revenues is expected to be more pronounced in 2025 due to the anticipated entry of biosimilars for Tysabri and generics for Tecfidera in certain European markets [5]. Other Drug Sales - Spinraza's sales improved in the fourth quarter, but demand may have decreased in the first quarter, with estimates at $364.0 million (Zacks) and $338.1 million (internal) [6]. - Sales of Skyclarys for Friedreich's ataxia are expected to rise year-over-year, with estimates at $110.0 million (Zacks) and $111.4 million (internal) [7]. - Zurzuvae's launch has exceeded expectations, with strong patient demand likely contributing to improved sales in the first quarter [8][9]. Alzheimer's Collaboration and Revenues - Revenues from contract manufacturing, royalties, and Alzheimer's collaboration are expected to rise, particularly from the drug Leqembi, which has shown strong sales growth in recent quarters [10][11]. - Leqembi's sales have improved sequentially, with strong growth noted in China and Japan, and it was recently approved in the European Union [11][12]. Overall Revenue Expectations - Overall revenues for the first quarter of 2025 are expected to be negatively impacted by seasonality, higher discounts, and channel dynamics in the U.S., along with foreign exchange headwinds [13]. Key Events - Biogen announced a collaboration with Stoke Therapeutics to develop zorevunersen for Dravet syndrome, with a pivotal study expected to begin in the first quarter of 2025 [14]. Earnings Surprise History - Biogen has consistently beaten earnings estimates in the past four quarters, with an average earnings surprise of 11.8%. However, the current model does not predict a beat for the upcoming quarter, with an Earnings ESP of -15.8% [15][16][17].