The Motley Foolยท2025-04-24 12:15Core Viewpoint - UPS has experienced significant stock decline and operational challenges, while Enterprise Products Partners presents a more stable investment opportunity with strong growth potential and high dividend yield [1][2][7]. UPS Overview - UPS operates in over 200 countries, delivering an average of 22.4 million packages daily and employing nearly half a million people [1]. - The company has been a member of the S&P 500 for 23 years and has raised its dividend annually for 16 consecutive years [1]. Recent Performance of UPS - Over the past two years, UPS's stock has plummeted by more than 50% due to decelerating deliveries, shrinking operating margins, and declining EPS [2]. - In 2023, UPS's revenue declined by 9%, adjusted operating margin shrank by 290 basis points to 10.9%, and EPS plunged by 41% [4]. - For 2024, revenue growth flatlined, adjusted operating margin dropped another 90 basis points to 9.8%, and EPS fell by 13% [4]. Future Projections for UPS - From 2024 to 2027, analysts expect UPS's revenue to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of less than 1%, while EPS is projected to grow at a CAGR of 11% [5]. - If UPS matches analysts' estimates and trades at 13 times forward earnings by the beginning of 2027, its stock price could rise about 23% to $119, driving its market cap to just over $100 billion [6]. Enterprise Products Partners Overview - Enterprise Products Partners builds pipelines for transporting natural gas, natural gas liquids, and crude oil, operating over 50,000 miles of pipeline across the U.S. with a combined storage capacity of over 300 million barrels of oil [8]. - As a midstream company, Enterprise generates revenue by charging upstream extraction and downstream refining companies "tolls" to use its pipelines, making it less affected by fluctuating fuel prices [9]. Growth Potential of Enterprise Products Partners - Enterprise is well-insulated from inflation and macro headwinds, benefiting from the Trump Administration's promotion of domestic fossil fuels [10]. - The company is a master limited partnership (MLP), reporting profits in earnings per unit (EPU) and returning most of its EPU to investors as distributions [11]. - From 2014 to 2024, Enterprise's EPU grew at a steady CAGR of 6%, with a current forward distribution of $2.14 per share, equating to a forward yield of 6.9% [12]. Future Projections for Enterprise Products Partners - Analysts expect Enterprise's EPU to continue growing at a CAGR of 6% from 2024 to 2027, driven by pipeline expansions in oil-rich locations [12]. - At $31, Enterprise trades at just 11 times this year's EPU estimate, and if it trades at 15 times forward earnings by Q1 2027, its stock price could rise 53% to nearly $48, boosting its market cap to $102.5 billion [13].