Lam Research Q3 Earnings Beat: Can Strong Guidance Lift the Stock?

Core Insights - Lam Research (LRCX) reported strong third-quarter fiscal 2025 results, with both revenue and earnings exceeding expectations [1][2] - The company provided an optimistic outlook for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, despite recent stock price declines due to broader tech market concerns [3] Financial Performance - LRCX's non-GAAP earnings for Q3 fiscal 2025 were $1.04 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4%, and reflecting a 33.3% year-over-year increase [2] - Revenues for the same quarter reached $4.72 billion, surpassing the consensus estimate by 1.64% and marking a 24.5% increase from $3.79 billion in the previous year [2] Segment Performance - Systems revenues accounted for $3.04 billion, representing 64.3% of total revenues, which is a 15.6% increase from the previous quarter and a 26.6% increase year-over-year, although it fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.69 billion [4] - Customer Support Business Group revenues were $1.68 billion, making up 35.7% of total revenues, which is a 3.7% decrease from the previous quarter but a 20.5% increase year-over-year [4] Geographic Revenue Breakdown - In Q3, revenue contributions came from China (31%), Korea (24%), and Taiwan (24%), with Japan (10%), the United States (4%), Southeast Asia (4%), and Europe (3%) making up the remainder [5] Operating Metrics - Non-GAAP gross margin improved to 49.0%, up 150 basis points from the previous quarter, while non-GAAP operating margin rose to 32.8%, an increase of 210 basis points [6] - Non-GAAP operating expenses increased to $763 million, a 3.8% rise from $735 million in the prior quarter [6] Balance Sheet and Cash Flow - As of March 30, 2025, Lam Research held $5.46 billion in cash and cash equivalents, down from $5.67 billion [7] - Cash flow from operating activities significantly increased to $1.31 billion, up from $742 million in the previous quarter [7] - The company paid dividends totaling $295.7 million and repurchased shares worth $347 million during the quarter [7] Future Guidance - For Q4 fiscal 2025, Lam Research projects revenues of $5 billion (+/- $300 million), indicating a year-over-year growth of 17.23% compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.54 billion [8] - The company expects a non-GAAP gross margin of 49.5% (+/-1%) and a non-GAAP operating margin of 33.5% (+/-1%) [9] - Projected non-GAAP earnings per share for Q4 are $1.20 (+/- $0.10), with a diluted share count of 1.28 billion, compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 96 cents, reflecting an 18.5% year-over-year growth [9]