2 Coal Stocks to Watch Amid the Ongoing Weakness in the Industry

Industry Overview - The Zacks Coal industry is facing challenges due to a decline in coal usage in thermal power plants in the U.S., with demand expected to decrease further by 2025 due to the retirement of coal units and a shift towards renewable energy sources [1][2] - Current U.S. recoverable coal reserves are estimated at 252 billion short tons, with 58% being underground mineable coal, but the industry's prospects are hindered by increasing renewable energy adoption and natural gas competitiveness [2][4] Production and Export Trends - U.S. coal production is projected to be 490 million short tons in 2025, an increase from previous estimates, but is expected to decline by 4.5% year-over-year in 2025 and 4.7% in 2026 [5] - Coal exports are anticipated to drop to 93 million short tons in 2025, a 4.1% decrease from earlier projections, with thermal coal exports expected to fall from 49 million short tons in 2025 to 47 million short tons in 2026 due to tariffs imposed by China [3][10] Emission Policies and Market Position - The U.S. aims for 100% carbon pollution-free electricity by 2030 and net-zero emissions by 2050, which is contributing to reduced coal usage in electricity generation [4] - The Zacks Coal industry currently ranks 239 out of 246 Zacks industries, placing it in the bottom 3%, reflecting a negative earnings outlook and a 47.2% decline in earnings estimates for 2025 since December 2024 [6][8] Stock Performance and Valuation - Over the past year, the coal industry has lost 9%, outperforming the Zacks Oil and Gas sector's decline of 14.5%, but lagging behind the Zacks S&P 500 composite, which gained 6.9% [10] - The industry is trading at a trailing 12-month EV/EBITDA ratio of 4.7X, significantly lower than the Zacks S&P 500 composite's 15.86X, indicating a challenging valuation environment [13] Notable Companies - SunCoke Energy focuses on metallurgical coal production, essential for steel manufacturing, and has an annual coke-making capacity of 5.9 million tons, with a current dividend yield of 5.14% [17][18] - Ramaco Resources is positioned to benefit from improving metallurgical coal demand, with 3.5 million tons contracted for 2025 at a fixed price of $145 per ton, and plans to invest$60 to $70 million in capital expenditures for growth initiatives [22][23]