中文传媒(600373)：主业应变求新 创新业态布局深入

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in both revenue and profit for 2024, primarily due to changes in the subscription and distribution methods for educational materials and adjustments in tax policies [1][2] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 9.304 billion yuan, total profit of 1.183 billion yuan, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 744 million yuan, with a non-recurring net profit of 686 million yuan [1] - For Q4 2024, revenue was 2.552 billion yuan, down 33.4% year-on-year, with total profit of 148 million yuan and a net profit of 16 million yuan [1] Business Segments - The educational materials segment saw revenue of 3.71 billion yuan, a decrease of 27.6%, while general book revenue was 3.96 billion yuan, down 27.0% [2] - The gaming segment generated revenue of 1.23 billion yuan, a decline of 7.5%, but cost control measures led to a 23.2% reduction in operating costs [2][3] Innovation and Development - The company is advancing its educational technology initiatives, including the "LingSi Model" for text generation and review, and has formed a joint venture to explore AI integration with traditional business [2][3] Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute cash dividends of 560 million yuan for 2024, with a payout ratio of 75.0%, an increase of 21.3 percentage points year-on-year [2] Expense Management - The company maintained stable expense ratios, with sales, management, and R&D expense ratios at 8.3%, 19.5%, and 2.4%, respectively, reflecting slight increases due to high employee compensation amidst declining revenue [2] Future Outlook - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 8.508 billion, 8.778 billion, and 9.135 billion yuan, with expected growth rates of -8.56%, +3.17%, and +4.07% respectively [4] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 984 million, 1.064 billion, and 1.173 billion yuan, with growth rates of +32.15%, +8.17%, and +10.19% respectively [4] - The company's valuation multiples are projected at 15.5x, 14.3x, and 13.0x for the next three years, indicating a favorable long-term investment outlook [4]