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国金证券:给予润丰股份买入评级
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing·2025-04-25 04:33

Core Viewpoint - The company, Runfeng Co., Ltd. (301035), has reported its performance in line with expectations, showing a positive outlook for growth and maintaining a "Buy" rating from Guojin Securities [1] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 13.296 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.77% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 450 million yuan, a decrease of 41.63% year-on-year - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 2.686 billion yuan, a slight decline of 0.26% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 67.98% to 257 million yuan [2] Operational Analysis - Revenue breakdown by product shows herbicides generated 9.732 billion yuan (73.19% of total revenue) with a gross margin of 17.76%, insecticides contributed 2.105 billion yuan (15.83%) with a gross margin of 26.91%, and fungicides accounted for 1.313 billion yuan (9.88%) with a gross margin of 22.05% - The sales model indicates that TOA and TOB business segments accounted for 62.35% of revenue with a gross margin of 14.23%, while TOC business contributed 37.65% of revenue with a gross margin of 28.99% - The company is expected to see continued improvement in operations in 2025, despite the crop protection industry being at a cyclical low with significant oversupply in domestic and Indian markets - The market is anticipated to shift from "de-stocking" to "capacity reduction" in 2025, leading to intensified competition - Trade protectionism and various market factors are expected to increase operational uncertainties, but the overall operating gross margin is projected to improve as the company expands its TOC business and enhances its global operational capabilities [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company forecasts net profits of 1.004 billion yuan, 1.215 billion yuan, and 1.491 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.575 yuan, 4.326 yuan, and 5.309 yuan - The current stock price corresponds to PE ratios of 16.78, 13.87, and 11.30 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, maintaining a "Buy" rating [4] Analyst Ratings - In the last 90 days, five institutions have provided ratings for the stock, all of which are "Buy" ratings [7]