智通财经网·2025-04-25 08:00Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan indicates that after the unexpected tariff policy on April 2, 2025, which caused liquidity shocks, gold prices surged and briefly exceeded $3,500 per ounce, before quickly retreating to $3,300 due to fluctuating attitudes from Trump regarding tariffs. The medium to long-term trend for gold prices remains upward, with a projected range of $3,209 to $3,905 per ounce in 2025 [1][3]. Group 1: Recent Gold Price Trends - Recent rapid increases in gold prices are characterized by significant volatility, driven by physical demand, Asian capital inflows, and a substantial decline in the US dollar index [2]. - Gold price volatility has risen sharply, currently at the 89.2 percentile historically, as uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies has led to increased safe-haven investments in gold [2]. - The divergence between COMEX gold net long positions and gold price trends indicates a shift from speculative pricing to a supply-demand pricing model, with physical investment funds like SPDR Gold ETF increasing their holdings [2]. Group 2: Future Outlook - In the short term, after adjustments, a favorable allocation window for gold is anticipated, with a focus on monitoring gold price volatility trends [3]. - If Trump's tariff stance significantly eases or if negotiations with other countries progress positively, gold prices may experience high-level fluctuations and a downward trend in volatility [3]. - Key fundamental events to watch include the progress of US tariff policy negotiations and short-term fluctuations in central bank gold purchases, which have been a core driver of gold price increases in 2023 [3]. Group 3: Medium-Term Considerations - The ongoing decline in the credibility of the US dollar and its reserve status may lead to a sustained increase in gold price levels [4]. - The backdrop of de-globalization suggests a long-term downtrend for the US dollar index, exacerbated by rising fiscal deficits and the challenges of implementing tax cuts [4]. - High policy uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff policies is expected to continue supporting gold prices, as the current environment is markedly different from 2018 [4]. Group 4: Quantitative Analysis - The quantitative model projects that gold prices will fluctuate between $3,209 and $3,905 per ounce in 2025, based on a framework that has shown a high correlation with historical gold prices [5]. - The model identifies four key pricing factors for gold since 2022: global central bank gold reserves, US fiscal deficit rates, economic policy uncertainty in the US, and the real yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds [5].