美国春季购房季低迷，高利率与关税不确定性拖累楼市

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. housing market is experiencing significant declines in existing home sales, with March 2023 seeing a 5.9% month-over-month drop, the largest since November 2022, attributed to economic uncertainty and high mortgage rates [1][3]. Sales Performance - March 2023's annualized sales rate for existing homes was 4.02 million units, below the expected 4.13 million units, marking a 2.4% year-over-year decline [1]. - The typical home stayed on the market for 36 days in March, an increase from 33 days in the same month last year [3]. - The inventory of homes for sale rose by 8.1% in March, reaching 1.33 million units, a 19.8% increase year-over-year [3]. Market Dynamics - Increased inventory is providing buyers with more negotiation power, with approximately 44% of transactions in Q1 2023 involving seller concessions [3]. - About 25% of listed homes in March saw price reductions, the highest percentage for March since 2018 [3]. - Foreign investor interest in the U.S. housing market is declining, with Asian buyers shifting focus to countries like Thailand, Malaysia, and Australia [4]. Economic Outlook - The Oxford Economics report predicts that the annualized sales rate for existing homes will be 4.13 million units in Q1 2025, lower than the baseline forecast of 4.17 million units [4]. - The report indicates that economic growth will be hampered by tariff increases and policy uncertainty, leading to a further slowdown in sales throughout 2025 [4]. Affordability Issues - The median price of existing homes reached $403,700 in March 2023, a 2.7% year-over-year increase, marking the highest March median price recorded by NAR [5]. - Housing affordability remains at historical lows, with families earning around $80,000 needing an additional $30,000 in income to afford the median-priced home [5]. - Rising property taxes and insurance costs are exacerbating the affordability crisis, with insurance premiums expected to rise by approximately 12% in 2023 and 2024 [6].