Exelixis' Q1 Earnings: Will Cabometyx Maintain Momentum?

Core Viewpoint - Investors are keenly awaiting Exelixis' first-quarter 2025 results, particularly focusing on the performance of its lead drug, Cabometyx, with sales and earnings estimates at $502.8 million and 42 cents per share respectively [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Exelixis has a history of earnings surprises, beating estimates in three of the last four quarters with an average surprise of 26.87%, including a 7.84% beat in the last reported quarter [1] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Cabometyx sales is $434 million, while the model estimate is $457.3 million, indicating strong sales performance [3] - Collaboration revenues have increased due to higher royalty revenues from cabozantinib sales outside the U.S., a trend expected to continue [4] Group 2: Product Developments - Cabometyx is approved for advanced renal cell carcinoma (RCC) and previously treated hepatocellular carcinoma, maintaining its status as the leading TKI for RCC [3] - Recent FDA approvals expanded Cabometyx's label for treating adult and pediatric patients with previously treated, unresectable, locally advanced or metastatic well-differentiated pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (pNET) and extra-pancreatic NET (epNET) [5][6] Group 3: Share Repurchase and Financial Strategy - The board has authorized a $500 million stock repurchase program, expected to commence after completing the ongoing $500 million program [7] - Ongoing share repurchases are likely to positively impact the bottom line, although operating expenses may rise due to costs associated with a broader portfolio [7] Group 4: Earnings Prediction - The earnings model predicts a potential earnings beat for Exelixis, supported by a positive Earnings ESP of +7.14% and a Zacks Rank of 3 [8][9] - The Most Accurate Estimate for earnings is 45 cents per share, compared to the consensus estimate of 42 cents [9] Group 5: Stock Performance - Exelixis shares have gained 11.4% year-to-date, contrasting with a 3.7% decline in the industry [12]