Should You Buy, Sell, or Hold PayPal Stock Before Q1 Earnings?

Core Viewpoint - PayPal is expected to report flat to low single-digit revenue growth for Q1 2025, with non-GAAP earnings projected between $1.15 and $1.17 per share, indicating a year-over-year growth of 6-8% [1][2]. Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Q1 revenues is $7.83 billion, reflecting a 1.64% increase from the previous year [1]. - The consensus for earnings is $1.15 per share, which is a decline of 17.86% compared to the same quarter last year [2]. Recent Developments - PayPal has consistently beaten the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 14.26% [3]. - The company’s strong portfolio and partnerships are expected to positively influence Q1 results, particularly through initiatives like Fastlane and Venmo monetization [4][5]. Strategic Partnerships - PayPal's partnerships with major companies such as Amazon, Shopify, Apple, Alphabet, and Meta Platforms have been significant growth drivers [5][6]. - The integration of PayPal and Venmo cards into Apple Wallet and the addition of PayPal as a processor for Shopify Payments enhance operational efficiency for business owners [6]. Value-Added Services - PayPal is expanding its value-added services, including FX-as-a-service and network tokens for automated billing, which are expected to improve transaction margins [8]. - The launch of PayPal Everywhere is driving increased debit card adoption and creating new spending categories [8]. Stock Performance - PayPal shares have declined by 23.8% year-to-date, underperforming the Zacks Business Service sector and the Internet Software Industry [9]. - The stock is considered cheap, with a forward Price/Sales ratio of 1.91X, significantly lower than the industry average of 6.33X [12]. Long-Term Growth Prospects - PayPal's portfolio strength and investments in branded checkout and P2P services are expected to drive total active accounts and transaction margins [16]. - The company anticipates a transaction margin growth of at least 5% in 2025 and high-single-digit growth by 2027, with long-term growth projected at over 10% [17].