Analyst Upgrades Dow, Calls Capex Cut And Asset Sales Positive

Core Viewpoint - Fermium Research analyst Frank J. Mitsch upgraded Dow Inc. from Hold to Buy with a price forecast of $35 based on better-than-expected financial results and strategic decisions [1] Financial Performance - Dow reported first-quarter 2025 sales of $10.431 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of $10.24 billion, and adjusted EPS of $0.02, surpassing the consensus estimate of a $0.01 loss [1] - The analyst lowered 2025 EPS estimates from $1.61 to $0.29 (consensus $1.40) and EBITDA estimates from $5.20 billion to $4.05 billion (consensus $4.82 billion) due to ongoing weak macroeconomic conditions [4] Strategic Decisions - Dow's decision to postpone the Ft. Saskatchewan Path2Zero project is viewed positively, expected to yield an additional $600 million in capex savings in 2025 [2] - The anticipated negative free cash flow of up to $1 billion in the first half of 2025 is a concern, but the analyst believes that working capital inflows, reduced maintenance spending, and increased EBITDA from new projects will drive a reversal in the second half [3][4] Market Reaction - Dow's shares increased by 0.37% to $29.87 as of the last check on Friday [5]