Better AI Stock: BigBear.ai vs. C3.ai

Core Insights - BigBear.ai and C3.ai are both AI companies targeting government, military, and large enterprise customers, but they are not direct competitors [4] - Both companies have seen significant declines in their stock prices since going public, with BigBear.ai trading around $2 from an opening of$9.84, and C3.ai trading around $19 from an opening of$42 [2] Company Overview - BigBear.ai develops AI modules that enhance data from various sources and predict future trends, focusing on edge networks and using a case-by-case pricing model [5] - C3.ai offers a broader range of AI modules that can be integrated into various deployment environments, initially focusing on subscriptions but later introducing consumption-based fees [7][8] Financial Performance - BigBear.ai's revenue grew from $146 million in 2021 to$158 million in 2024, with a net loss increasing from $124 million to$257 million [11] - C3.ai's revenue increased from $269 million in fiscal 2023 to$311 million in fiscal 2024, but its net loss also widened from $269 million to$280 million [14] Future Projections - Analysts expect BigBear.ai's revenue to rise nearly 8% to $170 million in 2025, with a narrowed net loss of$54 million [13] - C3.ai's revenue is projected to grow by 25% to $388 million in fiscal 2025, but its net loss is expected to widen to$300 million [15] Strategic Challenges - BigBear.ai faced challenges due to the bankruptcy of Virgin Orbit, which limited its revenue recognition from that partnership [6] - C3.ai is heavily reliant on its joint venture with Baker Hughes, which accounted for 35% of its revenue in fiscal 2024, and the deal is set to expire without renewal [9] Management Issues - BigBear.ai has undergone significant leadership changes, now on its third CEO since going public [10] - C3.ai has experienced instability in its financial leadership, with four CFOs since its IPO, and is facing lawsuits from investors regarding misrepresentation of its partnership with Baker Hughes [10]