天风证券：给予上峰水泥买入评级

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights a significant increase in profits for Shangfeng Cement in Q1 2025, with a strong focus on a new five-year plan aimed at dual-driven growth in both the cement industry and new economic investments [1][5]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Shangfeng Cement reported total revenue of 5.448 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 627 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 14.83% and 15.70% respectively. The adjusted net profit was 474 million yuan, down 25.26% year-on-year [2]. - In Q4 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.633 billion yuan and a net profit of 223 million yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 7.44% and 409.84% respectively. The adjusted net profit for the same quarter was 108 million yuan, up 57.73% year-on-year [2]. - For Q1 2025, revenue increased by 4.64% to 951 million yuan, with net profit and adjusted net profit reaching 80 million yuan and 60 million yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 447.6% and 200.6% [2]. Business Segments - The cement and clinker segment saw a revenue decline of 10.8% to 4.764 billion yuan in 2024, with sales volume down 3.3% to 20.75 million tons. The average price per ton decreased by 19 yuan to 230 yuan [3]. - The company’s aggregate and environmental disposal businesses also experienced declines, with revenues down 35% and 39% to 320 million yuan and 140 million yuan, respectively [3]. - New economic investments are beginning to yield returns, with the completion of the Jinghe Integrated Project generating investment income of 166 million yuan [3]. Profitability and Cash Flow - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 26.16%, a decrease of 1.58 percentage points year-on-year. The Q4 gross margin was 24.89%, down 2.72 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The net profit margin for 2024 was 10.87%, slightly down by 0.10 percentage points year-on-year. The operating cash flow for the year was 1.039 billion yuan, a decrease of 78 million yuan year-on-year [4]. Dividend and Future Outlook - The company announced a cash dividend of 600 million yuan for 2024, with a dividend rate of 95.73%, translating to a dividend yield of approximately 7.46% based on the closing price on April 25 [5]. - Future profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to 790 million yuan and 920 million yuan, respectively, with a new estimate for 2027 set at 1.01 billion yuan [5].