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Is Moody's Stock a Buy Now?
MCOMoody’s(MCO) The Motley Fool·2025-04-26 12:30

Core Insights - Moody's reported an 8% year-over-year increase in quarterly revenue and a 14% rise in adjusted earnings per share (EPS) to 3.83,exceedingWallStreetestimates[1]However,thecompanyreviseditsfullyearprofitguidancedownward,contributingtoa193.83, exceeding Wall Street estimates [1] - However, the company revised its full-year profit guidance downward, contributing to a 19% decline in its stock from the 52-week high amid economic uncertainties [2] Financial Performance - The company has a strong financial analytics technology platform, benefiting from a trend where corporations and institutions outsource parts of their investing workflow [3] - Moody's experienced robust demand for cloud-based subscriptions and data licensing, starting fiscal 2025 with strong performance [4] - The Moody's Investor Service segment saw an 8% year-over-year revenue increase due to momentum in global bond issuances and favorable market conditions [6] - Moody's Analytics group reported a 9% increase in annualized recurring revenue (ARR) and a 93% retention rate, indicating durable growth [7] - The adjusted operating margin reached 51.7%, up 100 basis points year-over-year, and the company increased its dividend by 11% to 0.94 per share, yielding 0.9% [8] Outlook and Guidance - Moody's faces challenges from a rapidly evolving operating environment, particularly due to recent changes in U.S. trade policy that may disrupt the economy [9] - A slowdown in global debt issuances could impact the credit ratings business and limit growth opportunities, leading to a tempered full-year growth and earnings outlook [10] - The revenue growth estimate for 2025 was revised from high single digits to mid-single digits, and adjusted EPS guidance was lowered to a range of 13.25to13.25 to 14 [11] - Despite solid fundamentals, the stock's valuation premium is difficult to justify, trading at a P/E ratio of 38, above the five-year average of around 35 [12] Investment Perspective - Current shareholders may find enough strong points to hold, but investors on the sidelines may discover better value and upside potential elsewhere in the market [14]