Should You Buy Chipotle Stock Right Now and Hold It for the Next 20 Years?

Core Viewpoint - Chipotle Mexican Grill reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.29 for Q1, exceeding Wall Street estimates, but its revenue of $2.9 billion fell short of expectations [1] Financial Performance - The company experienced a same-store sales decline of 0.4% in Q1, marking its first year-over-year drop since Q2 2020, contrasting with a 7% gain in Q1 2024 [4] - Revenue rose by 102% and net income surged by 338% from 2019 to 2024, showcasing a strong long-term financial performance [8] Market Conditions - U.S. consumer sentiment is low, with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index at its second lowest level on record, impacting discretionary spending [2][3] - The company’s outlook anticipates same-store sales to increase in the low single-digit range for the full year [5] Strategic Positioning - Chipotle maintains a value proposition with an average cost of below $10 for its chicken burritos and burrito bowls, which is 20% to 30% below comparable fast-casual meals [6][7] - The company aims to expand its physical footprint, with plans to open about 273 new locations by the end of the year, bringing its total to 3,781 [9] Future Growth Potential - Management is confident in reaching a long-term target of 7,000 stores in North America and aims for an annual revenue of $28 billion [10] - The stock, currently trading 28% off its peak, presents an opportunity for long-term investment despite a forward P/E ratio of 39 [12]