【财经分析】通胀压力仍存 俄央行继续收紧货币政策

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Russia has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 21%, marking the fourth consecutive time this historically high rate has been held since October of the previous year [1][2]. Group 1: Inflation and Monetary Policy - Inflation pressures remain high, with the annual inflation rate as of April 21 at 10.3%, exceeding the target value [2]. - Consumer inflation rebounded to 13.1% in April after two months of decline, while commercial price expectations reached 19.8%, significantly above the average levels from 2017 to 2019 [2]. - The Central Bank aims to restore the inflation rate to the target of 4% by 2026, indicating that future decisions on the benchmark rate will depend on the pace and sustainability of inflation rate declines [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Conditions and Predictions - Despite discussions about potential interest rate cuts, many analysts predict that high rates will persist, with some forecasting a possible reduction to 19% in June [3]. - The Ministry of Economic Development projects inflation rates of 7.6% in 2025, with a return to 4% only by 2026 [3]. - Economic indicators suggest that while retail and corporate credit activities are subdued, domestic demand remains supported by rising household income and budget expenditures [3][5]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Expert Opinions - Analysts express caution regarding the sustainability of the current economic conditions, noting that while inflation expectations are declining, they remain high [4]. - The Central Bank's analysts highlight that the recent decrease in inflation pressure is partly due to a stronger ruble, but the stability of the ruble is uncertain [4][5]. - Experts suggest that the economy has developed a "tolerance" to the current benchmark rate, and further increases could significantly hinder economic growth [3][5].