国金证券：给予三棵树买入评级

Core Viewpoint - Company has received a "Buy" rating from Guojin Securities, indicating confidence in its profit realization and growth potential [1]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 12.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.0%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 330 million yuan, an increase of 91.3% [2]. - For Q1 2025, revenue reached 2.13 billion yuan, up 3.1% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 110 million yuan, a significant increase of 123.3% [2]. - The company reclassified certain product categories, impacting revenue growth rates for both 2024 and Q1 2025 [2]. Operational Analysis - The retail segment showed strong growth, with home decoration and engineering wall paint revenues of 2.97 billion and 4.08 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting year-on-year growth of 12.8% and a decline of 12.7%, respectively [3]. - In Q1 2025, home decoration and engineering wall paint revenues were 650 million and 590 million yuan, with year-on-year growth of 8.0% and 9.4% [3]. - The company maintained the top market share in imitation stone paint for five consecutive years, reaching 7.6% in 2024, indicating a favorable competitive landscape [3]. Margin and Cost Management - The gross margin stabilized and improved, with Q4 2024 gross margin at 32.5%, up 0.44 percentage points year-on-year, and Q1 2025 gross margin at 31.05%, an increase of 2.67 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The company reduced its expense ratio to 25.7% in 2024, down 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, with a further reduction in Q1 2025 to 31.4%, down 2.4 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The workforce was optimized, with a reduction of 836 employees by the end of 2024, indicating a shift towards efficiency rather than a labor-intensive strategy [4]. Cash Flow and Profitability Outlook - The company achieved positive operating cash flow for the first time in Q1, with 110 million yuan, compared to a negative 260 million yuan in the same period last year [4]. - The operating cash flow for 2024 was 1.01 billion yuan, showing stability as the company shifted its focus from large B-end clients to C-end and small B-end clients [4]. - The company is expected to maintain stable profitability, with revised net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 at 900 million and 1.25 billion yuan, respectively [5]. Valuation and Market Sentiment - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 28.5 and 20.5 for 2025 and 2026, respectively, supporting the "Buy" rating [5]. - Recent analyst coverage indicates a positive sentiment, with five "Buy" ratings and one "Hold" rating among six institutions in the last 90 days [8].