宏观面压力有所缓和 棉花小幅反弹试探上方压力位

Group 1: Market Overview - The USDA's latest forecast indicates a reduction in global cotton production for the 25/26 season, expected at 25.408 million tons, a decrease of 3% year-on-year [1] - Global cotton consumption is projected to increase by 2.7% year-on-year to 25.909 million tons, while ending stocks are expected to decline by 2.9% to 16.569 million tons [1] - Both imports and exports are anticipated to rise by 8.2% year-on-year, with a significant portion of the increase potentially coming from China [1] Group 2: Speculative Positions - According to the CFTC report, cotton speculators reduced their net short positions by 3,220 contracts to 52,619 contracts as of the week ending April 22 [1] Group 3: Regional Insights - In India, weekly cotton arrivals were reported at 42,000 tons, a significant decline of 87% year-on-year, with cumulative arrivals for the 2024/25 season at 4.4196 million tons, down 5% year-on-year [1] - The cumulative arrivals in India have reached 89% of the CAI's forecast for the 24/25 season production balance sheet of 4.95 million tons, which is 5% faster year-on-year [1] Group 4: Institutional Perspectives - According to Jianxin Futures, the macroeconomic environment is showing signs of easing, with Trump indicating a significant reduction in tariffs on China, contingent on reaching an agreement [2] - The planting progress for U.S. cotton remains on par with last year, but drought indices are higher, and Brazilian production forecasts continue to rise, indicating supply pressures [2] - Domestic cotton planting is progressing well, with limited impact from local weather conditions, while downstream finished product inventories are slightly increasing but not significantly [2] - Southwest Futures notes that U.S. tariff policies are severely disrupting global economic operations, potentially dragging down global economic growth and affecting cotton demand [2] - Domestic downstream profits are low or negative, leading to a marginal decline in demand, with a strong supply and weak demand dynamic expected to result in short-selling opportunities after any rebounds [2]