蓝皮书预计2030年前我国在运核电装机规模有望跃居世界第一

Core Insights - The "China Nuclear Energy Development Report (2025)" predicts that by 2030, China's operational nuclear power capacity will become the largest in the world, given the current construction pace [1][4]. Industry Overview - The global nuclear energy sector is experiencing a revival, with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) raising its nuclear power development forecasts for four consecutive years. Additionally, 31 countries and regions have signed the "Triple Nuclear Energy Declaration," indicating increased policy support for nuclear energy from major nuclear nations [4]. - As of the end of 2024, China will have 57 operational nuclear power units with a total installed capacity of 59.76 million kilowatts, ranking third globally. The average utilization hours for nuclear power in 2024 are projected to be 7,797 hours, with a cumulative generation of 444.7 billion kilowatt-hours, accounting for 4.72% of the national total generation [4]. Future Projections - The report anticipates a rapid evolution in the international nuclear energy competitive landscape. China aims to maintain an open and cooperative stance to promote international nuclear collaboration, enhance its nuclear technology innovation system, and accelerate advancements in key nuclear technologies [4]. - The proportion of nuclear power in China's electricity market transactions has increased from approximately 30% in 2020 to 46.1% in 2024, indicating a trend of gradual growth [5]. - As the share of renewable energy rises, challenges such as real-time power balance and frequency and voltage support will become more pronounced. Nuclear power is expected to play a crucial role as a stable foundational energy source, particularly in providing base load, grid security support, and emergency backup [5].