国金证券：给予长久物流增持评级

Core Viewpoint - Longjiu Logistics has shown significant growth in revenue and profit due to the expansion of international and new energy businesses, leading to an "Accumulate" rating from Guojin Securities [1][4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Longjiu Logistics achieved a revenue of 4.18 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 80 million, up 13.1% [1]. - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 1.27 billion, reflecting a 36.8% year-on-year growth, and a net profit of 18 million, which is a remarkable increase of 194.7% [1]. Business Analysis - The growth in revenue is primarily driven by the increase in international and new energy businesses, despite a 13.4% decline in the complete vehicle logistics segment due to ongoing pressures in the automotive logistics industry [2]. - International business revenue surged by 87.5%, supported by the acquisition of a third roll-on/roll-off ship and the opening of new railway routes [2]. - New energy business revenue skyrocketed by 210.3%, attributed to the commissioning of the new energy factory in Chuzhou and the establishment of a comprehensive demonstration station in Beijing [2]. Profitability Metrics - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 11.6%, an increase of 0.86 percentage points, due to optimized transportation routes and refined operations [2]. - The company’s expense ratio decreased to 9.9%, down 0.65 percentage points, with a net profit margin of 1.91%, reflecting a 0.05 percentage point increase [2]. Future Outlook - For 2025, the company plans to enhance third-party complete vehicle logistics integration, optimize transportation efficiency, and advance digital upgrades [3]. - The international business will focus on expanding into markets in Mexico, Southeast Asia, and Europe, while strengthening collaborations with domestic and foreign manufacturers [3]. - In the new energy sector, the company aims to improve its product matrix and invest in energy storage technology development [3]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to 100 million and 130 million, respectively, with a new estimate for 2027 at 150 million [4].