国金证券：给予扬州金泉买入评级

Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing short-term performance pressure but is expected to gradually improve its operations, maintaining a "buy" rating from analysts [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 831 million, a decrease of 1.77% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 144 million, down 36.89% [2]. - For Q1 2025, revenue was 239 million, an increase of 8.85%, while net profit was 31 million, a decrease of 26.99% [2]. - The company plans to distribute cash dividends of 67.53 million, with a dividend payout ratio of approximately 52% [2]. Operational Analysis - The company is seeing marginal improvements in B2B orders and stable development of its B2C brand, "Polar Fox" [3]. - Revenue growth turned positive in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, with the company strengthening its position in outdoor equipment manufacturing while increasing investment in new product development [3]. - Revenue from tents, sleeping bags, clothing, and backpacks in 2024 was 361 million, 117 million, 256 million, and 39 million respectively, with year-on-year changes of -22.33%, -2.29%, +41.73%, and -4.61% [3]. - The company has established partnerships with new brand clients in Australia and North America, with some products entering mass production [3]. - Domestic revenue grew significantly by 149.83% year-on-year, while international revenue decreased by 8.57% [3]. - The "Polar Fox" brand achieved revenue and net profit of 152 million and 26 million respectively in 2024, reflecting growth of 11.97% and 12.87% [3]. Industry Competition - Increased competition in the industry has led to fluctuations in profitability, with gross margins for 2024 and Q1 2025 at 26.02% and 24.60%, down 6.48 and 6.04 percentage points respectively [4]. - The sales expense ratio increased to 2.08% and 2.58% for 2024 and Q1 2025, respectively, while net profit margins decreased significantly [4]. - The company aims to improve profitability as order conditions improve and production capacity utilization gradually recovers [4]. Growth Strategy - The company plans to enhance customer relationships and expand its high-potential customer base while introducing high-performance materials in its product lines [4]. - Automation in new product lines and the establishment of a digital platform for product development, production operations, and supply chain management are also part of the growth strategy [4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to have EPS of 2.36, 2.60, and 2.88 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 15, 14, and 12 [5]. - The "buy" rating is maintained based on these forecasts [5].