Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the Japanese yen has appreciated by 5% against the US dollar since the announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" by Trump, positioning it as a "winner" in the trade conflict [1] - Tokyo's core inflation rate surged to a two-year high of 3.4% in April, driven by the gradual removal of energy subsidies and rising food prices, suggesting a strong domestic demand supporting price increases [1] - A broader measure of potential inflation, excluding fresh food and energy prices, rose significantly from 2.2% to 3.1% year-on-year, indicating that the Bank of Japan's policymakers will closely monitor this metric [2] Group 2 - Market expectations suggest that the Bank of Japan will maintain its current monetary policy stance in the upcoming meeting, but the potential for rate hikes later this year remains if external shocks do not materialize [2] - The USD/JPY exchange rate rebounded from a multi-month low of 139.89 to 143.85, with a potential to test Fibonacci resistance at 144.21, although there are indications of bearish risks in the short term [2] - The Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) reaching 3.4%, significantly above the expected 2.4%, highlights ongoing inflationary pressures, prompting market focus on the tightening risks from the Bank of Japan [2]
通胀升温日本央行加息蓄势待发
Jin Tou Wang·2025-04-27 09:01