特朗普关税冲击美国货运量，评级机构下调美国港口展望至“负面”

Group 1 - Moody's predicts a decline in U.S. freight volume between 7% and 12% by 2025, downgrading the outlook for U.S. ports from "stable" to "negative" [1][3] - The World Trade Organization (WTO) forecasts a significant drop in North American exports by 12.6% and imports by 9.6% due to recent tariff and trade policy uncertainties [1] - The CEO of the Port of Long Beach, Mario Cordero, anticipates a 44% decrease in the number of vessels arriving during the week of May 4-10 compared to the same period last year [3] Group 2 - The Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation reports that the region could lose approximately $500 billion in revenue and threaten 2 million jobs due to U.S. tariff policies [5] - Drewry, a global shipping analysis firm, expects a 1% decline in global container shipping volume, marking only the third occurrence of such a decline since 1979 [6][8] - Shipping expert John McCown predicts that U.S. freight volume growth will be significantly lower in 2025 compared to 2024, with a potential double-digit decline if current tariffs persist [8] Group 3 - Moody's emphasizes that the impact of tariffs will become more pronounced after May, affecting import costs and reducing import volumes [10][11] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects a decrease in U.S. economic growth to 1.8% in 2025, which could further weaken trade volumes [11] - Despite a significant reduction in freight volume, trans-Pacific freight rates have remained stable due to a high number of empty vessels sailing [12]