智通财经网·2025-04-28 00:10Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that after the implementation of tariff policies in April 2025, gold prices are expected to experience significant volatility, driven by escalating US-China tariff tensions, a pressured US dollar, cautious Federal Reserve policy expectations, and heightened global risk aversion [1] - Long-term support for gold prices is attributed to safe-haven demand, with tariffs and geopolitical instability acting as key factors [1] - The recent downturn in US equities has led to a strong asset allocation demand for gold from European and American funds, making gold a significant beneficiary of the current US stock market decline [1] Group 2 - The narrative of a collapse in dollar credit is emerging, with structural dollar depreciation benefiting gold as a primary asset, alongside central bank gold purchases reflecting this trend [2] - The pricing framework for TIPS has become ineffective, as market risk aversion has begun to dominate gold pricing, influenced by changes in the dollar credit system and central bank purchasing behavior [5] - Central banks view gold as an alternative to the dollar, with geopolitical factors driving its pricing, and concerns over weak US stocks and the dollar contributing to the recent increase in global ETF gold holdings [6] Group 3 - The pricing logic of gold is likely changing, with gold no longer being merely an appendage to the dollar system but gradually becoming a rival to it [8] - The true signal for asset price revaluation is found in gold prices rather than in the RMB to USD exchange rate or interest rate paths, indicating that RMB gold prices are becoming the true monetary anchor for China [8] - Current RMB gold prices are more aligned with a "Shanghai-led" pricing model rather than the previous "USD gold price and exchange rate" triangular conversion [8]