美国矿产关税或将冲击化工市场

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. is considering imposing tariffs on up to 50 critical minerals, which are essential raw materials for chemical production, potentially replacing the current "reciprocal tariffs" and posing a significant challenge to the U.S. chemical market [1] Group 1: Impact on Refining and Chemical Industries - Tariffs on minerals such as fluorspar, cerium, and lanthanum will significantly increase product prices in the refining catalyst market [3] - Fluorspar is used to produce hydrofluoric acid, a catalyst for alkylation units, while cerium and lanthanum are catalysts for fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) units [3] - Increased catalyst prices may lead refineries to alter their operations, potentially reducing the operating rates of alkylation units and shifting production towards toluene or mixed xylene, impacting the aromatics market [3] - Changes in the operating rates of alkylation and FCC units will simultaneously affect the supply and demand of propylene [3] Group 2: Broader Implications for Chemical Products - Fluorspar is also a key upstream raw material for fluorinated chemicals and fluoropolymers, which are increasingly important in 5G devices, semiconductor manufacturing, and lithium-ion batteries [3] - Concerns have been raised about titanium oxide being included in the tariff list, which would further increase costs for U.S. paint manufacturers already pressured by previous steel tariffs [3] - Special catalysts are also at risk; tariffs on antimony could lead to price increases for producers of polyethylene terephthalate (PET), as antimony is a crucial catalyst in its production [4] - Bismuth, another catalyst for polyurethane production, faces similar tariff risks, impacting the overall cost structure of these industries [4] - The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) indicates that various minerals, including iridium, neodymium, rhodium, ruthenium, palladium, and platinum, are essential for catalyst manufacturing, suggesting significant implications for domestic industries if tariffs are enacted [4]