煤焦油市场加速探底

Core Viewpoint - The domestic coal tar market has experienced a significant decline after reaching a peak in early March, with prices dropping by approximately 24% by April 22, leading to a cautious atmosphere in the industry [1] Demand Weakening - The demand for coal tar has shifted from strong to weak as the peak consumption season comes to an end, resulting in lower purchasing enthusiasm from downstream companies [2] - Inventory digestion in the tire industry has been slow, contributing to a bearish outlook on future coal tar prices, with companies adopting a just-in-time purchasing strategy [2] - The decline in demand has also affected the prices of downstream products like carbon black and anthracene oil, leading to increased losses for carbon black manufacturers [2] Supply Expectations Increasing - As of April 17, the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises in China was 73.51%, reflecting a 5% increase, with stable growth in coal tar production expected [3] - The profitability of coking plants has improved due to the first round of coking coal price increases, maintaining strong procurement demand from steel mills [3] - Companies are adopting a just-in-time sales strategy, with low-priced inventory clearance policies accelerating market adjustments [3] Downstream Inventory Accumulation - In the context of weak terminal demand, deep processing products like anthracene oil and washing oil are facing sales difficulties, leading to increased inventories [4] - The operating rate of coal tar deep processing increased to 46% as of April 17, but losses in the carbon black industry have led to a decrease in its operating rate to 61.79% [4] - The significant decline in the coal tar market has caused traders to adopt a wait-and-see approach, further negatively impacting the market as it enters the consumption off-season [4]