特朗普与鲍威尔的博弈拉锯战

Group 1 - The relationship between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has become increasingly tense, reflecting structural conflicts between the executive branch and an independent central bank [1] - Trump's second term economic strategy differs from his first, focusing on aggressive policies such as significant interest rate cuts to showcase economic performance to voters [2][3] - The U.S. manufacturing sector's contribution to the global economy has drastically decreased from 28% to 10%, impacting employment and inflation stability [3] Group 2 - The U.S. federal budget deficit for fiscal year 2024 is projected at $1.83 trillion, marking the third-largest deficit in history, exacerbated by Trump's tax cuts and infrastructure spending [4] - The national debt has surpassed $36 trillion, with interest payments reaching $1.1 trillion, the highest in 26 years, leading to increased pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates [4][9] - Inflation rates are showing signs of improvement, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising only 2.4% year-on-year in March, prompting Trump to call for interest rate cuts [5][6] Group 3 - Powell's cautious approach to interest rate adjustments is influenced by the potential long-term inflation risks associated with Trump's tariff policies, which could lead to a "spiral" of rising prices [6][7] - The Federal Reserve's independence is emphasized, as historical precedents protect its decision-making from direct presidential influence, complicating Trump's attempts to exert control [10][11] - The contrasting economic philosophies between Trump, who prioritizes immediate economic growth, and Powell, who focuses on data-driven inflation control, contribute to their ongoing conflict [10][11]