贸易摩擦背景下，芯片国产替代有望提速

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry in China is expected to accelerate domestic substitution due to new customs regulations regarding the origin of integrated circuits, which will recognize the wafer fabrication location as the origin for import declaration [1][5]. Market Overview - From April 8 to April 22, 2025, the CSI 300 Index increased by 5.42%, while the Shenwan Electronics Index rose by 4.06%, ranking 29th among Shenwan's primary industry indices [2]. - The global semiconductor sales reached $54.92 billion in February, showing a year-on-year increase of 19.0% but a month-on-month decrease of 2.8% [2]. - China's semiconductor sales in February amounted to $15.06 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.6% and a month-on-month decline of 3.2% [2]. Storage Industry Insights - The DRAM market is entering a new price increase cycle, with average spot prices for DDR3, DDR4, and DDR5 rising by 1.15%, 2.25%, and 2.81% week-on-week as of April 22, 2025 [3]. - NAND product prices for 256GB and 512GB SSDs remained stable week-on-week, but year-to-date prices increased by 11.84% and 11.45%, respectively [3]. - Major storage manufacturers, including SanDisk, plan to raise product prices due to recovering demand driven by AI and smart terminals [3]. End-user Demand Trends - In February 2025, domestic smartphone shipments reached 19.66 million units, a year-on-year increase of 37.9% [4]. - In March 2025, China's automobile sales totaled 2.92 million units, up 8.2% year-on-year, with new energy vehicle sales growing by 40.1% [4]. - Global PC shipments in Q1 2025 were 58.95 million units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [4]. Industry Events - The China Semiconductor Industry Association announced new customs regulations on April 11, 2025, which will impact the import declaration of integrated circuits [5]. - NVIDIA's H20 GPU has been banned from export to China and Israel without a license, as per U.S. government regulations [5]. - TrendForce predicts that the contract prices for memory chips will see an expanded increase in Q2 2025 due to changes in supply and demand strategies [5]. Investment Recommendations - The electronic industry is rated as "outperforming the market," with a focus on AI-related companies, domestic substitution in semiconductor equipment, and potential price increases in the storage sector [6].