关税冲击投资 安永大幅下调英国经济增长预期

Core Viewpoint - The EY Item Club predicts that the UK economic growth rate for 2026 will be halved due to the impact of comprehensive tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump, leading to a significant downward revision of growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [1][2] Economic Growth Forecasts - The growth forecast for the UK economy in 2025 has been revised down from 1% to 0.8%, and for 2026 from 1.6% to 0.9% [1] - The forecast for household spending growth has been reduced from 1.6% to 0.9% for this year [2] - Business investment growth is now expected to be only 0.3%, down from a previous forecast of 2% [2] Trade and Investment Impact - The UK is expected to experience a decline in exports, with a projected decrease of 0.5% in 2025 and 0.4% in 2026 [2] - The overall economic outlook indicates that commercial investment will be particularly hard hit, with almost no growth anticipated this year [1] Government Financial Planning - The bleak economic outlook poses challenges for UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves, whose fiscal plans are based on an anticipated economic growth of nearly 2% in 2026 [1] - The downward revision of economic expectations increases the risk that Reeves will need to raise taxes or cut spending to adhere to fiscal rules [1] Monetary Policy Outlook - Despite the economic challenges, the EY Item Club expects the Bank of England to maintain a gradual interest rate cut cycle, with the possibility of accelerating easing in the future [2] - However, it is warned that inflation rates are likely to remain above 3% for most of 2025 [2]