全球贸易格局剧变下货币秩序面临“再平衡”

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the US dollar and the potential implications for its dominance in the global currency order are being closely analyzed, with discussions emerging about a possible shift towards a multipolar currency system [2][6]. Group 1: US Dollar Dynamics - Following the tariff storm on April 2, the US dollar index (DXY) initially strengthened due to safe-haven demand but subsequently declined, falling below the 100 mark to 99.7924 on April 11, with a daily drop of 0.76% [1]. - The 10-year US Treasury yield surged from 4% at the beginning of April to nearly 5%, indicating a loss of confidence in dollar assets as investors sought safer alternatives [1]. - The dollar's safe-haven status is being questioned, leading to discussions about the potential end of dollar hegemony [2]. Group 2: Currency Comparisons - The Japanese yen has seen increased demand as a hedge against US recession risks, with predictions of a 9% appreciation, as the USD/JPY exchange rate fell from 149.27 to 142.67 by April 11, marking a 1.11% daily drop [1]. - The euro has appreciated significantly, driven by strong economic data from the Eurozone and a slower pace of interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank, with the EUR/USD rate rising 2.5% to 1.1228 on April 10 [1]. - Despite the euro's recent strength, its long-term position is constrained by structural issues within the EU and geopolitical weaknesses, limiting its ability to challenge the dollar's dominance [4]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - The US dollar retains significant long-term advantages, including unmatched market depth and liquidity, with the US stock market accounting for 40% of global market capitalization and a robust Treasury market with $36 trillion in outstanding debt [3]. - The flexibility of US monetary policy tools, such as potential adjustments to leverage ratios or halting quantitative tightening, could stabilize the dollar and attract capital back to US assets [3]. - The euro's position as a global reserve currency remains stable at around 20%, far below the dollar's 58%, indicating challenges for the euro in becoming a true competitor to the dollar [4].