Zhong Guo Neng Yuan Wang·2025-04-28 08:25Market Overview - The global lubricating oil additives market reached a size of $16 billion in 2023, with approximately 70% of these additives used in the automotive sector [1][2] - The market sales for lubricating oil additives in 2023 amounted to $15.99 billion, and it is projected to grow to $18.21 billion by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.9% from 2024 to 2030 [1][2] - In China, the apparent demand for lubricating oil additives was 950,100 tons in 2021, with a CAGR of 2.99% from 2013 to 2021 [1][2] Demand Side Analysis - In the transportation lubricants segment, despite the increasing penetration of electric vehicles leading to a decline in traditional fuel vehicle growth, the sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles are expected to continue rising [2] - The overall automotive sales in China are anticipated to maintain stable growth due to continued government efforts to stimulate consumption, which will support the demand for transportation lubricants and their additives in the short to medium term [2] - In the industrial lubricants segment, the demand is expected to steadily increase due to equipment renewal policies and the rapid expansion of new special bond scales, which will support the growth of engineering machinery ownership [2] Supply Side Analysis - The lubricating oil additives industry has high barriers to entry in terms of technology, capital, and customer access, leading to a highly concentrated supply globally, dominated by four major international companies that hold about 85% of the market share [3] - China’s imports of lubricating oil additives have fluctuated around 300,000 tons from 2020 to 2024, with an expected import volume of 243,200 tons in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.74% [3] - In the context of trade tensions, there is a growing emphasis on supply chain security, prompting lubricant customers to shift their focus towards domestic enterprises, which may enhance the market share of local companies and improve the self-sufficiency of China's lubricating oil additives industry [3][4] Investment Recommendations - The demand for lubricating oil additives in both transportation and industrial sectors is expected to grow in line with the sales and ownership of end-use vehicles and engineering machinery, with growth rates anticipated to remain relatively stable as these markets have entered a mature phase [4] - Currently, China still needs to import 200,000 to 300,000 tons of lubricating oil additives annually, with some imports coming from the U.S., highlighting the importance of supply chain security and the potential acceleration of domestic substitution processes [4] - Companies such as Ruifeng New Materials (300910) and Lianlong (300596) are recommended for attention in this sector [4]