需求增量不多且不持续 PVC期价或低位运行为主

Market Overview - As of April 24, PVC social inventory decreased by 5.15% month-on-month to 687,700 tons, and decreased by 20.77% year-on-year [1] - On April 28, the PVC market in Hangzhou stabilized, with slight fluctuations in spot prices; new goods prices are relatively high, with various pricing ranges reported [1] Production and Demand - The overall PVC operating rate is at 78.6%, up 1.3% week-on-week; the calcium carbide method is at 78.6% (down 0.7%), while the ethylene method is at 78.6% (up 6.5%) [1] - The production volume for the week is 450,000 tons, remaining stable month-on-month, with seasonal demand expected to improve [2] Supply Chain Dynamics - The industry is currently in a destocking mode due to recent export deliveries and concentrated maintenance on the supply side [3] - There are plans for new installations to come online in May and June, which may exert supply pressure [3] Price Trends - The cost side is supported by declining calcium carbide prices, leading to a downward shift in futures prices; however, speculative demand at low prices is not expected to drive significant rebounds [2] - Current futures contract range is projected between 4,900 and 5,250 [2] Inventory and Profitability - PVC social and factory inventories have decreased by 6%, indicating a significant destocking trend [2] - The profitability of integrated caustic soda/PVC enterprises remains largely unchanged, with weak domestic demand impacting price stability [3]