减税后，钱从哪来？特朗普的“关税印钞机”被算出致命bug

Core Viewpoint - Trump's plan to use tariff revenue to replace income tax is deemed impractical by economists, as it cannot generate sufficient revenue to offset income tax losses [1][2][3] Group 1: Economic Impact of Tariffs - Trump's tariff policy has significantly impacted the global economy, raising concerns about rising prices among American consumers and leading to a decline in his approval ratings [2] - A recent Ipsos poll indicated that 64% of Americans disapprove of Trump's handling of tariffs, with 69% believing his administration is failing to curb rising prices [2] - The Yale University budget lab estimates that the tariff policy could generate $2.4 trillion in revenue from 2026 to 2035, but after accounting for negative dynamic revenue effects, the average annual revenue would be only $176.9 billion, less than one-third of Navarro's optimistic projection [3] Group 2: Feasibility of Tax Replacement - The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) argues that the idea of replacing income tax with tariffs is unrealistic, citing that the effective tariff rate of 28% would only yield an additional $511 billion in revenue after considering import transfer effects [3] - The bottom 90% of income earners contribute $576 billion in income tax, which exceeds the expected tariff revenue, highlighting the inadequacy of tariffs to replace income tax [3] - The increase in tariff rates could lead to a shrinking tax base, further complicating the feasibility of using tariffs to replace income tax [3] Group 3: Political and Legislative Context - Trump's proposal to eliminate income tax for low-income earners may inadvertently harm them by removing refundable tax credits, leading to a net loss in purchasing power [4] - The potential for tariffs to replace income tax is limited, with estimates suggesting that tariffs could only cover up to 40% of income tax revenue, necessitating very high tariff rates that could trigger an economic recession [4] - Trump's administration is seeking to extend the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, which is set to expire in 2025, and has proposed various tax cuts, raising concerns about how to fund these initiatives [5]